Blended outlook for fruits and nuts from USDA

The fruit and nut value index rose 9 p.c from June 2023 and 11 p.c from July 2022, the USDA’s Nationwide Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) stories.

“Will increase within the costs of apples, grapes, peaches, pears and strawberries throughout July greater than offset declines in recent and processed orange costs in comparison with final yr,” the report says.

General, shopper costs in August rose by solely 0.6% in comparison with the earlier August.

Nass expects the manufacturing of almonds, apples, apricots, grapes, pears, candy cherries and walnuts to extend in the course of the interval 2023-2024, whereas the manufacturing of peaches, cherries and cranberries is anticipated to say no.

Will increase in recent cherry manufacturing had been astonishingly excessive: up 60 p.c from the earlier yr, whereas grape manufacturing rose 6 p.c.

Apricot manufacturing elevated by 9 p.c, benefiting from considerable flowers, adequate chilly hours and rain. Nonetheless, “the U.S. apricot trade has skilled a long-term downward development in planted acreage (declining 62 p.c over the previous 20 years),” NASS stories. “The downward development in manufacturing has coincided with a decline within the share of apricots used within the processed market.”

The truth is, the share of apricot manufacturing for the recent market has exceeded that of the processed market since 2018, a development that appears more likely to proceed.

As for citrus, remaining estimates for the 2022-2023 citrus season present U.S. citrus manufacturing at 4.9 million tons, down 12 p.c from 2021-2022. This represents the bottom mixed manufacturing ranges of U.S. citrus in no less than 50 years. This traditionally small crop is generally as a consequence of low orange manufacturing in Florida.

The decline in orange juice manufacturing in Florida for 2022-2023 units a primary for the US citrus trade: a file share goes to the recent market somewhat than the processed market: 63 p.c versus 37 p.c, whereas the combo was 50-50 in The hundred. 2021-22. The decline in Florida manufacturing has been attributed to Huanglongbing illness (HLB or citrus greening) in addition to extreme hurricane shocks throughout current years.

Nonetheless, U.S. citrus manufacturing for the recent market reached 3 million tons in 2022-23, up 10 p.c from the earlier season, with bigger harvests of oranges (up 2 p.c), grapefruit (up 5 p.c), and lemons. (up 8 p.c), and tangerine (up 29 p.c).”

Apples: For the 2023-24 season (August-July), complete U.S. apple manufacturing is anticipated to achieve 9.9 billion kilos, up 1.5 p.c from final yr. In Washington, the most important producing state, the harvest is anticipated to achieve 6.7 billion kilos, a rise of 9 p.c from final yr. Whereas Washington’s 2023-2024 apple crop has not been impacted by spring freeze occasions like final season, present forecasts are nonetheless under the quantities recorded in 2019-21. The Washington State Tree Fruit Affiliation describes the fruit high quality as wonderful, and estimates that natural apples will account for 15.7 p.c of the state’s manufacturing this season.

Against this, 30% of New York State’s apples had been in “very poor or very poor situation” in September.

Nonetheless, recent apple exports in 2022-2023 fell from the earlier yr’s degree. In June 2023, India introduced that it might drop retaliatory tariffs on US apples in 2023. “Whereas trade stories point out that the welcome elimination of tariffs comes forward of the autumn apple harvest within the US, US recent apple exports might want to compete With China.” India’s present prime suppliers, which embody Türkiye, Italy and Iran.

Tropical Fruits: For the previous 50 years, “america has been the most important importer of bananas by quantity yearly. America has been the most important importer by quantity since 1975 of recent mangoes and since 1997 of recent pineapples. U.S. imports of tropical fruits usually come from Mexico Central America and South America… Since 2007, following the implementation of the Dominican Republic-Central America-United States Free Commerce Settlement (CAFTA-DR), most banana imports have come from Guatemala.

The provision of bananas has been comparatively fixed (about 25 kilos per capita) over current years, whereas the supply of mangoes and pineapples per capita has elevated.

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